Scenario-aware Uncertainty Quantification for Trajectory Prediction with Statistical Guarantees

Abstract: Reliable uncertainty quantification in trajectory prediction is crucial for safety-critical autonomous driving systems, yet existing deep learning predictors lack uncertainty-aware frameworks adaptable to heterogeneous real-world scenarios. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel scenario-aware uncertainty quantification framework to provide the predicted trajectories with prediction intervals and reliability assessment. To begin with, predicted trajectories from the trained predictor and their ground truth are projected onto the map-derived reference routes within the Frenet coordinate system. We then employ CopulaCPTS as the conformal calibration method to generate temporal prediction intervals for distinct scenarios as the uncertainty measure. Building upon this, within the proposed trajectory reliability discriminator (TRD), mean error and calibrated confidence intervals are synergistically analyzed to establish reliability models for different scenarios. Subsequently, the risk-aware discriminator leverages a joint risk model that integrates longitudinal and lateral prediction intervals within the Frenet coordinate to identify critical points. This enables segmentation of trajectories into reliable and unreliable segments, holding the advantage of informing downstream planning modules with actionable reliability results. We evaluated our framework using the real-world nuPlan dataset, demonstrating its effectiveness in scenario-aware uncertainty quantification and reliability assessment across diverse driving contexts.