Debt, Growth, and the Carbon Lock-In

Abstract: We develop a macro-financial model that establishes a link between credit dynamics, economic growth, and cumulative carbon emissions. It is based on an extension of Kelly's model, a framework derived from information theory and investment theory, applied here to understand macro-financial and climate dynamics. This approach complements traditional Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) by explicitly linking financial dynamics to cumulative emissions, enabling the assessment of policy alignment (or misalignment) with net-zero pathways. We find that injecting debt into the system increases short-term production gains, but at the expense of higher bankruptcy risk and cumulative emissions. Thus, the model reveals a double constraint: financially, debt requires growth to be repaid; ecologically, growth requires energy, and therefore emissions. When the intrinsic growth rate falls below the interest rate, the probability of solvency drops to zero: the economy enters a zone of structural instability. The model then identifies an optimal leverage frontier: beyond a certain threshold, additional debt no longer fuels real wealth; it only increases the risk of bankruptcy and carbon debt. Our model is calibrated using multi-decade macroeconomic and emissions data from several countries, including the United States, China, France, and Denmark. Our results confirm that the correlation between cumulative debt, cumulative GDP, and cumulative emissions remains strong, regardless of the political structure of credit. In our current financial system, credit expansion amplifies GDP growth and associated emissions, thereby locking economies into higher cumulative carbon trajectories, even as energy efficiency improves through innovation.