Bayesian inference on Calabi--Yau moduli spaces and the axiverse: experimental data meets string theory

Abstract: We develop tools of Bayesian inference on the moduli space of Calabi--Yau (CY) manifolds. We sample from the invariant Weil--Petersson (WP) measure using Markov Chain Monte Carlo and normalising flows on \Kahler moduli space with dimension up to $h^{1,1}=30$, and present results on the spectrum of the CY volume and properties of divisors when the measure is restricted in physically meaningful ways. We furthermore present a theory-informed prior on axion masses and decay constants $(m_a,f_a)$ marginalised over the WP measure for all inequivalent CYs constructable from the Kreuzer--Skarke database with $h^{1,1}\leq 5$. We then impose likelihoods based on axion physics. We demonstrate how detection of a relatively heavy QCD axion at small $h^{1,1}$, e.g. by ADMX, provides detailed information about CY geometry and topology. Finally, we compute a full forward model incorporating likelihoods from the cosmic microwave background and Lyman-alpha forest and find the maximum posterior probability region on the moduli space of a given CY favoured by a resolution of the tension in these data by an ultralight axion composing $\mathcal{O}(1\%)$ of the dark matter. This demonstration serves as a blueprint for future statistical analyses within string phenomenology.