Regularity as Structural Amplifier, Not Trap: A Causal and Archetype-Based Analysis of Dropout in a Constrained Engineering Curriculum

Abstract: Engineering programmes, particularly in Latin America, are often governed by rigid curricula and strict regularity rules that are claimed to create a Regularity Trap for capable students. This study tests that causal hypothesis using the CAPIRE framework, a leakage-aware pipeline that integrates curriculum topology and causal estimation. Using longitudinal data from 1,343 civil engineering students in Argentina, we formalize academic lag (accumulated friction) as a treatment and academic velocity as an ability proxy. A manual LinearDML estimator is employed to assess the average (ATE) and conditional (CATE) causal effects of lag on subsequent dropout, controlling for macro shocks (strikes, inflation). Results confirm that academic lag significantly increases dropout risk overall (ATE = 0.0167, p < 0.0001). However, the effect decreases sharply for high-velocity (high-ability) students, contradicting the universal Trap hypothesis. Archetype analysis (UMAP/DBSCAN) shows that friction disproportionately harms trajectories already characterized by high initial friction and unstable progression. 8 We conclude that regularity rules function as a Structural Amplifier of pre-existing vulnerability rather than a universal trap. This has direct implications for engineering curriculum design, demanding targeted slack allocation and intervention policies to reduce friction at core basic-cycle courses