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Sovereign AI: Rethinking Autonomy in the Age of Global Interdependence

Published 18 Nov 2025 in cs.CY, cs.AI, and econ.GN | (2511.15734v1)

Abstract: AI is emerging as a foundational general-purpose technology, raising new dilemmas of sovereignty in an interconnected world. While governments seek greater control over it, the very foundations of AI--global data pipelines, semiconductor supply chains, open-source ecosystems, and international standards--resist enclosure. This paper develops a conceptual and formal framework for understanding sovereign AI as a continuum rather than a binary condition, balancing autonomy with interdependence. Drawing on classical theories, historical analogies, and contemporary debates on networked autonomy, we present a planner's model that identifies two policy heuristics: equalizing marginal returns across the four sovereignty pillars and setting openness where global benefits equal exposure risks. We apply the model to India, highlighting sovereign footholds in data, compute, and norms but weaker model autonomy. The near-term challenge is integration via coupled Data x Compute investment, lifecycle governance (ModelOps), and safeguarded procurement. We then apply the model to the Middle East (Saudi Arabia and the UAE), where large public investment in Arabic-first models and sovereign cloud implies high sovereignty weights, lower effective fiscal constraints, and strong Data x Compute complementarities. An interior openness setting with guardrails emerges as optimal. Across contexts, the lesson is that sovereignty in AI needs managed interdependence, not isolation.

Summary

  • The paper introduces a nuanced framework for AI sovereignty that balances national control with global interdependence through strategic management of data, compute, models, and norms.
  • The paper employs historical analogies and case studies from India and the Middle East to demonstrate how effective governance can maintain autonomy while engaging in international collaborations.
  • The paper details technical strategies including continuous ModelOps and infrastructure investments aimed at mitigating foreign dependencies and ensuring sustained sovereign control.

Sovereign AI: Rethinking Autonomy in the Age of Global Interdependence

Introduction

The paper "Sovereign AI: Rethinking Autonomy in the Age of Global Interdependence" (2511.15734) explores the pressing issue of artificial intelligence sovereignty in a world defined by interconnectedness and global dependencies. The authors challenge the simplistic binary of isolated control versus unrestricted openness, presenting AI sovereignty as a nuanced continuum shaped by strategic considerations across four key pillars: data, compute, models, and norms. This approach is framed in the context of historical analogies to past general-purpose technologies like electricity and the internet, proposing a model that integrates political theory with practical policy implications.

Theoretical Context and Sovereignty Framework

The discourse on sovereignty, as explored in classical political theory, provides foundational insights into AI governance. The authors reference Hobbes' notion of indivisible authority, Rousseau's collective governance, and Held's perspective on international conditions, illustrating the spectrum of potential AI governance models. The sovereignty framework is further refined through Gramsci's concept of cultural hegemony, emphasizing the critical role of narrative control and normative alignment in sovereign AI systems. Within this framework, the paper situates AI sovereignty as a multifaceted construct where strategic intent must navigate between complete control and practical interdependence.

Managed Interdependence and Global AI Ecosystems

A core thesis of the paper is that AI sovereignty cannot be achieved through isolationist policies. Instead, it must be viewed as networked autonomy. This perspective aligns with Keohane and Nye's Complex Interdependence Theory, which recognizes the strategic dependency inherent in modern technological ecosystems. The authors advocate for a pragmatic approach that balances sovereignty with selective global engagements, positing that effective AI governance requires countries to participate in international collaborations and standard-setting while maintaining control over critical components such as data governance and compute infrastructure.

Technical Considerations and ModelOps

In assessing the technical dimensions of sovereign AI, the authors propose a sophisticated model that accounts for the interplay between data, compute, models, and norms. This model emphasizes the importance of complementarity, particularly in data and compute resources, and underscores the complexities of maintaining model autonomy through continuous updates and ModelOps. The paper suggests that achieving true sovereignty involves more than infrastructure control; it requires comprehensive oversight of the AI lifecycle, including post-deployment governance to prevent foreign dependencies from eroding sovereign control.

Case Studies: India and the Middle East

The paper applies its conceptual model to India and the Middle East, highlighting distinct pathways to sovereign AI. In India, the integration of data and compute investments is identified as a critical challenge, with strategic opportunities stemming from institutional governance and public-private partnerships. For the Middle East, the focus is on leveraging large public investments and fiscal advantages to develop region-specific AI models and infrastructure. These case studies illustrate the applicability of the proposed sovereignty framework across diverse geopolitical contexts, providing actionable insights for policymakers.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that sovereign AI requires a nuanced approach that recognizes the inevitability of global interdependence while striving for controlled autonomy. By adopting a pragmatic framework that balances strategic investments across the four pillars of AI sovereignty, countries can navigate the complexities of AI governance without resorting to extreme isolation or dependency. Across the varied contexts of India and the Middle East, the paper underscores the importance of institutional readiness, international collaboration, and adaptive governance in achieving sustainable AI sovereignty.

Through this detailed exploration of AI sovereignty, the authors provide a comprehensive guide for policymakers and researchers seeking to reconcile autonomy with interdependence in the age of globalized artificial intelligence. The proposed planning model offers a scalable, adaptable framework to manage the trade-offs between national interests and global collaborations, setting the stage for future discussions on the evolving landscape of AI governance.

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