Design-based finite-sample analysis for regression adjustment

Abstract: In randomized experiments, regression adjustment leverages covariates to improve the precision of average treatment effect (ATE) estimation without requiring a correctly specified outcome model. Although well understood in low-dimensional settings, its behavior in high-dimensional regimes -- where the number of covariates $p$ may exceed the number of observations $n$ -- remains underexplored. Furthermore, existing theory is largely asymptotic, providing limited guidance for finite-sample inference. We develop a design-based, non-asymptotic analysis of the regression-adjusted ATE estimator under complete randomization. Specifically, we derive finite-sample-valid confidence intervals with explicit, instance-adaptive widths that remain informative even when $p > n$. These intervals rely on oracle (population-level) quantities, and we also outline data-driven envelopes that are computable from observed data. Our approach hinges on a refined swap sensitivity analysis: stochastic fluctuation is controlled via a variance-adaptive Doob martingale and Freedman's inequality, while design bias is bounded using Stein's method of exchangeable pairs. The analysis suggests how covariate geometry governs concentration and bias through leverages and cross-leverages, shedding light on when and how regression adjustment improves on the difference-in-means baseline.