Modeling U.S. Mortality and Suicide Rates by Integrating Mental Health and Socio-Economic Indicators

Abstract: Accurate mortality modeling is central to actuarial science and public health, especially as mental health emerges as a significant factor in population outcomes. This paper develops and applies a Bayesian hierarchical model to analyze U.S. county-level mortality and suicide rates from 2010 to 2023. Applying a conditional autoregressive (CAR) structure to each combination of sex and age grouping, the model captures spatial and temporal trends while incorporating mental health surveillance data and socio-economic indicators. We first assess socio-economic covariates in predicting suicide. While the results vary considerably by age and sex, we find that the county-wide levels of educational attainment, housing prices, marriage rates, racial composition, household size, and poor mental health days all have significant relationships with suicide rates. We next consider the impact of various mental health indicators on all-cause and suicide-specific mortality and find that the strongest effects are observed in younger populations. The spatial and temporal correlation structures reveal substantial regional clustering and time-consistent trends in both all-cause mortality and suicide rates, supporting the use of spatio-temporal methods. Our findings highlight the value of integrating mental health surveillance data into mortality models to better identify emerging risk areas and vulnerable populations. This approach has the potential to inform public health policy, resource allocation, and targeted interventions aimed at reducing disparities in mortality and suicide across U.S. communities.