Uncertainties in the production of iron-group nuclides in core-collapse supernovae from Monte Carlo variations of reaction rates (2511.01859v1)

Abstract: Core-collapse supernovae, occurring at the end of massive star evolution, produce heavy elements, including those in the iron peak. Although the explosion mechanism is not yet fully understood, theoretical models can reproduce optical observations and observed elemental abundances. However, many nuclear reaction rates involved in explosive nucleosynthesis have large uncertainties, impacting the reliability of abundance predictions. To address this, we have previously developed a Monte Carlo-based nucleosynthesis code that accounts for reaction rate uncertainties and has been applied to nucleosynthesis processes beyond iron. Our framework is also well suited for studying explosive nucleosynthesis in supernovae. In this paper, we investigate 1D explosion models using the "PUSH method", focusing on progenitors with varying metallicities and initial masses around $M_\mathrm{ZAMS} = 16 M_{\odot}$. Detailed post-process nucleosynthesis calculations and Monte Carlo analyses are used to explore the effects of reaction rate uncertainties and to identify key reaction rates in explosive nucleosynthesis. We find that many reactions have little impact on the production of iron-group nuclei, as these elements are primarily synthesized in the nuclear statistical equilibrium. However, we identify a few "key reactions" that significantly influence the production of radioactive nuclei, which may affect astrophysical observables. In particular, for the production of ${}^{44}$Ti, we confirm that several traditionally studied nuclear reactions have a strong impact. However, determining a single reaction rate is insufficient to draw a definitive conclusion.