Diagnosing Hallucination Risk in AI Surgical Decision-Support: A Sequential Framework for Sequential Validation

Abstract: LLMs offer transformative potential for clinical decision support in spine surgery but pose significant risks through hallucinations, which are factually inconsistent or contextually misaligned outputs that may compromise patient safety. This study introduces a clinician-centered framework to quantify hallucination risks by evaluating diagnostic precision, recommendation quality, reasoning robustness, output coherence, and knowledge alignment. We assessed six leading LLMs across 30 expert-validated spinal cases. DeepSeek-R1 demonstrated superior overall performance (total score: 86.03 $\pm$ 2.08), particularly in high-stakes domains such as trauma and infection. A critical finding reveals that reasoning-enhanced model variants did not uniformly outperform standard counterparts: Claude-3.7-Sonnet's extended thinking mode underperformed relative to its standard version (80.79 $\pm$ 1.83 vs. 81.56 $\pm$ 1.92), indicating extended chain-of-thought reasoning alone is insufficient for clinical reliability. Multidimensional stress-testing exposed model-specific vulnerabilities, with recommendation quality degrading by 7.4% under amplified complexity. This decline contrasted with marginal improvements in rationality (+2.0%), readability (+1.7%) and diagnosis (+4.7%), highlighting a concerning divergence between perceived coherence and actionable guidance. Our findings advocate integrating interpretability mechanisms (e.g., reasoning chain visualization) into clinical workflows and establish a safety-aware validation framework for surgical LLM deployment.