Foresighted Online Policy Optimization with Interference

Abstract: Contextual bandits, which leverage the baseline features of sequentially arriving individuals to optimize cumulative rewards while balancing exploration and exploitation, are critical for online decision-making. Existing approaches typically assume no interference, where each individual's action affects only their own reward. Yet, such an assumption can be violated in many practical scenarios, and the oversight of interference can lead to short-sighted policies that focus solely on maximizing the immediate outcomes for individuals, which further results in suboptimal decisions and potentially increased regret over time. To address this significant gap, we introduce the foresighted online policy with interference (FRONT) that innovatively considers the long-term impact of the current decision on subsequent decisions and rewards. The proposed FRONT method employs a sequence of exploratory and exploitative strategies to manage the intricacies of interference, ensuring robust parameter inference and regret minimization. Theoretically, we establish a tail bound for the online estimator and derive the asymptotic distribution of the parameters of interest under suitable conditions on the interference network. We further show that FRONT attains sublinear regret under two distinct definitions, capturing both the immediate and consequential impacts of decisions, and we establish these results with and without statistical inference. The effectiveness of FRONT is further demonstrated through extensive simulations and a real-world application to urban hotel profits.