Quasi-periodic oscillations in optical color evolutions to support sub-pc binary black hole systems in broad line active galactic nuclei (2510.14182v1)

Abstract: Optical quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) with periodicity around hundreds to thousands of days have been accepted as an efficient indicator for sub-pc binary black hole systems (BBHs) in broad line active galactic nuclei (BLAGN). However, considering intrinsic variability (red noises) of BLAGN, it is still an open question on physical origin of detected optical QPOs from AGN variability or truly from sub-pc BBHs. Here, a simple method is proposed to support optical QPOs related to sub-pc BBHs by detecting QPOs in time dependent optical color evolutions of BLAGN. Periodic variations of obscurations are expected on optical light curves related to sub-pc BBHs, but there should be non-periodic variable obscurations on optical light curves in normal BLAGN. Through simulated optical light curves for intrinsic AGN variability by Continuous AutoRegressive process with time durations around 2800days (similar as time durations of light curves in ZTF), the probability is definitely smaller than $3.3\times10^{-7}$ that QPOs can be detected in the corresponding optical color evolutions, but about $3.1\times10^{-2}$ that optical QPOs with periodicity smaller than 1400days (at least two cycles) can be detected in the simulated single-band light curves. Therefore, confidence level is definitely higher than 5$\sigma$ to support the QPOs in color evolutions not related to intrinsic AGN variability but truly related to sub-pc BBHs. In the near future, the proposed method can be applied for searching reliable optical QPOs in BLAGN through multi-band light curves from the ZTF and the upcoming LSST.