Satellite Direct-to-Device from Low Earth Orbit: Techno-Economic Analysis of a Global Non-Terrestrial Network

Abstract: Low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites and satellite direct-to-device (D2D) technology are at the heart of the next-generation global connectivity which promises direct access to space-based broadband services for unmodified 3GPP-compliant handsets. With a rapidly evolving ecosystem, it is important to evaluate the feasibility, cost-effectiveness, and profitability of these services. By assessing the technological aspects as well as economic implications, stakeholders can make informed decisions about investment, development, and deployment strategies. This paper presents a comprehensive techno-economic analysis (TEA) framework for evaluating LEO-based satellite D2D systems. The framework integrates a global satellite constellation model, radio propagation aspects including atmospheric and rainfall attenuation models compliant with ITU-R recommendations, 3GPP-compliant capacity calculations, realistic global population data, and an all-encompassing cost model accounting for both capital and operational expenses associated with space and ground segments. Further, the framework evaluates three different architectural options for realizing a global non-terrestrial network (NTN) for satellite D2D services. With an emphasis on reproducibility, the framework has been implemented through significant enhancements to an open-source tool. The economic assessment reveals that global satellite D2D services can be provided at a monthly cost per subscriber which is comparable to terrestrial services while achieving a positive return on investment (ROI). Moreover, the results show the potential of Open RAN technology for realizing cost-effective satellite D2D services.