Understanding the Evolution of Global Atmospheric Rivers with Vapor Kinetic Energy Framework

Abstract: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) often cause damaging winds, rainfall, and floods. However, the physical mechanisms governing their evolution remain poorly understood. To close this gap, we perform a global Vapor Kinetic Energy (VKE) budget analysis. Using two formulations of VKE, we show that ARs are governed by similar mechanisms regardless of ocean basins. ARs intensify primarily through the conversion of potential energy to kinetic energy (PE-to-KE), with horizontal convergence of vapor kinetic energy providing a secondary contribution in some regions. ARs decay mainly through condensation and turbulent dissipation, while their propagation is governed by the downstream convergence and upstream divergence of vapor kinetic energy. We also find PE-to-KE conversion varies spatially and strengthens in regions of greater baroclinic instability or enhanced topographic lifting, e.g., along North America's west coast. Collectively, these findings demonstrate that the VKE framework provides a powerful diagnostic for how physical processes shape AR evolution and regional variability.