A theoretical framework for M-posteriors: frequentist guarantees and robustness properties (2510.01358v1)

Abstract: We provide a theoretical framework for a wide class of generalized posteriors that can be viewed as the natural Bayesian posterior counterpart of the class of M-estimators in the frequentist world. We call the members of this class M-posteriors and show that they are asymptotically normally distributed under mild conditions on the M-estimation loss and the prior. In particular, an M-posterior contracts in probability around a normal distribution centered at an M-estimator, showing frequentist consistency and suggesting some degree of robustness depending on the reference M-estimator. We formalize the robustness properties of the M-posteriors by a new characterization of the posterior influence function and a novel definition of breakdown point adapted for posterior distributions. We illustrate the wide applicability of our theory in various popular models and illustrate their empirical relevance in some numerical examples.