The JWST EXCELS Survey: A spectroscopic investigation of the ionizing properties of star-forming galaxies at 1<z<8

Abstract: Charting the Epoch of Reionization demands robust assessments of what drives the production of ionizing photons in high-redshift star-forming galaxies (SFGs), and requires better predictive capabilities from current observations. Using a sample of $N=159$ SFGs at $1<z<8$, observed with deep medium-resolution spectroscopy from the JWST/NIRSpec EXCELS survey, we perform a statistical analysis of their ionizing photon production efficiencies ($\xi_\rm{ion}$). We consider $\xi_\rm{ion}$, measured with Balmer line measurements, in relation to a number of key galaxy properties including; nebular emission line strengths ($W_\lambda(\rm{H\alpha})$ and $W_\lambda$( [OIII])), UV luminosity ($M_\rm{UV}$) and UV slope ($\beta_\rm{UV}$), as well as dust attenuation ($E(B-V)\rm{neb}$) and redshift. Implementing a Bayesian linear regression methodology, we fit $\xi\rm{ion}$ against the principal observables while fully marginalising over all measurement uncertainties, mitigating against the impact of outliers and determining the intrinsic scatter. Significant relations between $\xi_\rm{ion}$ and $ W_\lambda(\rm{H\alpha})$, $W_\lambda$([OIII]) and $\beta_\rm{UV}$ are recovered. Moreover, the weak trends with $M_\rm{UV}$ and redshift can be fully explained by the remaining property dependencies. Expanding our analysis to multivariate regression, we determine that $W_\lambda(\rm{H\alpha})$ or $W_\lambda$([OIII]), along with $\beta_\rm{UV}$ and $E(B-V)\rm{neb}$, are the most important observables for accurately predicting $\xi\rm{ion,0}$. The latter identifies the most common outliers as SFGs with relatively high $E(B-V)\rm{neb}\gtrsim0.5$, possibly indicative of obscured star-formation or strong differential attenuation. Combining these properties enable $\xi\rm{ion,0}$ to be inferred with an accuracy of $\sim0.15\,$dex, with a population intrinsic scatter of $\sigma_\rm{int}\sim0.035\,$dex.