Developing a Dynamic Mobility Model for Backcasting Applications: A Case Study with Shared Autonomous Vehicles

Abstract: This study proposes the application of a backcasting approach to a mobility model with the aim of defining an optimal decarbonization roadmap. The selected decision variable is the introduction of a fleet of shared autonomous vehicles. The mobility model developed is composed of six interconnected sub-models. After presenting each of these models in detail, a method is introduced to analyze the direct and indirect effects of the measure, and a necessary condition for the occurrence of an undesirable effect is identified. Simulations in both forecasting and backcasting frameworks are then conducted, demonstrating the relevance of backcasting: it enables a 10% reduction in operator costs compared to forecasting results, while maintaining the same level of emissions.