MSGAT-GRU: A Multi-Scale Graph Attention and Recurrent Model for Spatiotemporal Road Accident Prediction

Abstract: Accurate prediction of road accidents remains challenging due to intertwined spatial, temporal, and contextual factors in urban traffic. We propose MSGAT-GRU, a multi-scale graph attention and recurrent model that jointly captures localized and long-range spatial dependencies while modeling sequential dynamics. Heterogeneous inputs, such as traffic flow, road attributes, weather, and points of interest, are systematically fused to enhance robustness and interpretability. On the Hybrid Beijing Accidents dataset, MSGAT-GRU achieves an RMSE of 0.334 and an F1-score of 0.878, consistently outperforming strong baselines. Cross-dataset evaluation on METR-LA under a 1-hour horizon further supports transferability, with RMSE of 6.48 (vs. 7.21 for the GMAN model) and comparable MAPE. Ablations indicate that three-hop spatial aggregation and a two-layer GRU offer the best accuracy-stability trade-off. These results position MSGAT-GRU as a scalable and generalizable model for intelligent transportation systems, providing interpretable signals that can inform proactive traffic management and road safety analytics.