Scaling and Population Loss in Mexican Urban Centres

Abstract: Despite its pervasive implications, many cities around the world continue to expand in a fragmented and horizontal manner. Here, we analyse the complex dynamics of urban growth across 69 metropolitan areas in Mexico, using census data from 1990 to 2020, and develop a model of urban form change that considers changes in population size, density, and spatial configuration. We employ a radial probability density function and the urban expansion factor to create a framework for comparing urban expansion over time and across different regions. Over the past three decades, Mexico's urban population has nearly doubled; however, populations have shifted outward, resulting in a decline of 2.5 million residents in central areas. Our analysis shows that distances from the city centre have increased by 28% on average, driven by population losses in central zones combined with growth in peripheral regions.