Higher-order Network phenomena of cascading failures in resilient cities

Abstract: Modern urban resilience is threatened by cascading failures in multimodal transport networks, where localized shocks trigger widespread paralysis. Existing models, limited by their focus on pairwise interactions, often underestimate this systemic risk. To address this, we introduce a framework that confronts higher-order network theory with empirical evidence from a large-scale, real-world multimodal transport network. Our findings confirm a fundamental duality: network integration enhances static robustness metrics but simultaneously creates the structural pathways for catastrophic cascades. Crucially, we uncover the source of this paradox: a profound disconnect between static network structure and dynamic functional failure. We provide strong evidence that metrics derived from the network's static blueprint-encompassing both conventional low-order centrality and novel higher-order structural analyses-are fundamentally disconnected from and thus poor predictors of a system's dynamic functional resilience. This result highlights the inherent limitations of static analysis and underscores the need for a paradigm shift towards dynamic models to design and manage truly resilient urban systems.