Learn-As-you-GO (LAGO) Trials: Optimizing Trials for Effectiveness and Power to Prevent Failed Trials

Abstract: The Learn-As-you-GO (LAGO) design provides a rigorous framework for adapting the intervention package based on accumulating data while the trial is ongoing. This article improves the flexibility of the LAGO design by incorporating statistical power as an optimization criterion (power goal) in LAGO optimizations. We propose the unconditional and conditional power approaches to add a power goal. Both approaches estimate the power at the end of the LAGO trial using data from prior stages, and increase the power at the end of the LAGO trial when the original trial was underpowered. Including a power goal maintains the asymptotic properties of the estimators of the treatment effect while preserving the asymptotic level of the statistical test at the end of the trial. We illustrate the benefits of our methods through a retrospective application to the BetterBirth Study, a large-scale study of maternal-newborn care that failed to show a significant effect on its primary outcome. This analysis demonstrates how our methods could have led to more intensive interventions and potentially significant results. The LAGO design with power goal optimizations provides investigators with a powerful tool to reduce the risk of failed trials due to insufficient power.