Statistical properties of homoclinic bursting: an approach using infinite-modal maps toward predicting extreme events

Abstract: Predicting extreme events in nonlinear dynamical systems is challenging due to a limited understanding of their statistical properties. This study numerically and theoretically investigates the statistical properties of infinite-modal maps arising from homoclinic bursting to predict extreme events. The numerical investigation presents bifurcation diagrams, Lyapunov exponents, height probability distributions, and interevent interval probability distributions for infinite-modal maps. The theoretical analysis derives analytical formulae for these statistical properties using a randomized infinite-modal map, which builds upon the randomization theory of infinite-modal maps developed in a previous study. Furthermore, a parameter estimation method for infinite-modal maps is proposed, utilizing the derived analytical formula, which enables practical application of the theoretical results. Finally, the study demonstrates the applicability of the approach in analyzing non-stationary data with time-dependent parameters. These findings provide a foundation for mechanism-based prediction of extreme events.