Gravity Well Echo Chamber Modeling With An LLM-Based Confirmation Bias Model

Abstract: Social media echo chambers play a central role in the spread of misinformation, yet existing models often overlook the influence of individual confirmation bias. An existing model of echo chambers is the "gravity well" model, which creates an analog between echo chambers and spatial gravity wells. We extend this established model by introducing a dynamic confirmation bias variable that adjusts the strength of pull based on a user's susceptibility to belief-reinforcing content. This variable is calculated for each user through comparisons between their posting history and their responses to posts of a wide range of viewpoints. Incorporating this factor produces a confirmation-bias-integrated gravity well model that more accurately identifies echo chambers and reveals community-level markers of information health. We validated the approach on nineteen Reddit communities, demonstrating improved detection of echo chambers. Our contribution is a framework for systematically capturing the role of confirmation bias in online group dynamics, enabling more effective identification of echo chambers. By flagging these high-risk environments, the model supports efforts to curb the spread of misinformation at its most common points of amplification.