Strategic Analysis of Dissent and Self-Censorship

Abstract: Expressions of dissent against authority are an important feature of most societies, and efforts to suppress such expressions are common. Modern digital communications, social media, and Internet surveillance and censorship technologies are changing the landscape of public speech and dissent. Especially in authoritarian settings, individuals must assess the risk of voicing their true opinions or choose self-censorship, voluntarily moderating their behavior to comply with authority. We present a model in which individuals strategically manage the tradeoff between expressing dissent and avoiding punishment through self-censorship while an authority adapts its policies to minimize both total expressed dissent and punishment costs. We study the model analytically and in simulation to derive conditions separating defiant individuals who express their desired dissent in spite of punishment from self-censoring individuals who fully or partially limit their expression. We find that for any population, there exists an authority policy that leads to total self-censorship. However, the probability and time for an initially moderate, locally-adaptive authority to suppress dissent depend critically on the population's willingness to withstand punishment early on, which can deter the authority from adopting more extreme policies.