Spatiotemporal Determinants of Vector-Borne Disease Outbreaks

Abstract: Vector-borne diseases arise from the coupled dynamics of human mobility and mosquito ecology, producing outbreaks shaped by both spatial distributions and temporal patterns of movement. Here we develop a coarse-grained hub--leaf reduction that isolates the universal principles governing epidemic vulnerability in interconnected populations. By deriving and analyzing the epidemic vulnerability equation, we show how human and vector population ratios, together with mobility parameters that regulate time spent in hub and leaf locations, jointly determine the conditions for outbreak persistence. The analysis reveals that balanced flows of individuals between patches consistently minimize vulnerability, whereas disproportionate concentrations of vectors can shift the dominant risk to specific locations. Across parameter regimes, compensatory mobility emerges as a stabilizing mechanism, while skewed host--vector ratios elevate epidemic risk. These results establish general principles for the spatiotemporal determinants of vector-borne disease spread and provide a theoretical foundation for extending minimal models to more complex epidemiological settings.