Breaking the Black Box: Inherently Interpretable Physics-Informed Machine Learning for Imbalanced Seismic Data (2508.19031v1)

Abstract: Ground motion models (GMMs) predict how strongly the ground will shake during an earthquake. They are essential for structural analysis, seismic design, and seismic risk assessment studies. Traditional ML approaches are popular to develop GMMs, due to large earthquake databases worldwide. However, they operate as "black boxes," which are hard to interpret and trust, limiting their use in high-stake decisions. Additionally, these databases suffer from significant data imbalances: fewer large, critically damaging records near the fault compared to abundant, less severely damaging distant records. These two limitations are addressed in this work by developing a transparent ML architecture using the HazBinLoss function. Each input (e.g., magnitude, distance, their interaction term, etc.) is processed separately and added linearly to obtain the output, resulting in exact contribution of each term. The HazBinLoss function assigns higher weights to critical near-field large magnitude records and lower weights to less-critical far-field smaller magnitude records, during training to prevent underprediction of the most damaging scenarios. Our model captures known seismological principles and achieves comparable performance with established GMMs while maintaining transparency. This framework enables broader adoption of ML-based approaches for risk assessment studies and disaster planning.