Unified Modelling of Infrastructure Asset Performance Deterioration -- a bounded gamma process approach

Abstract: Infrastructure asset management systems require a flexible deterioration model that can handle various degradation patterns in a unified way. Owing to its appealing monotonic sample paths, independent increments and mathematical tractability, gamma process has been widely employed as an infrastructure performance deterioration model. This model was recently enhanced by introducing an upper bound to satisfy a practical modelling need that many infrastructure performance deterioration processes are constrained by physical or managerial limits. Several bounded transformed gamma process (BTGP) alternatives had been proposed; however, they lacked due flexibility to characterize different deterioration patterns. This paper proposed a new BTGP model that is deeply grounded upon the traditional regression modelling tradition in infrastructure asset management systems. Qualitative and quantitative comparisons were carried out between the proposed BTGP and a bounded nonstationary gamma process (BNGP) model from both deterioration modelling and asset management decision-making perspectives. An empirical study using the real-world historical bridge condition data was performed to examine the flexibility of the BTGP against the BNGP and six other BTGP alternatives. The results confirmed the flexibility and significance of the proposed BTGP model for infrastructure systems.