RadProPoser: A Framework for Human Pose Estimation with Uncertainty Quantification from Raw Radar Data

Abstract: Radar-based human pose estimation (HPE) provides a privacy-preserving, illumination-invariant sensing modality but is challenged by noisy, multipath-affected measurements. We introduce RadProPoser, a probabilistic encoder-decoder architecture that processes complex-valued radar tensors from a compact 3-transmitter, 4-receiver MIMO radar. By incorporating variational inference into keypoint regression, RadProPoser jointly predicts 26 three-dimensional joint locations alongside heteroscedastic aleatoric uncertainties and can be recalibrated to predict total uncertainty. We explore different probabilistic formulations using both Gaussian and Laplace distributions for latent priors and likelihoods. On our newly released dataset with optical motion-capture ground truth, RadProPoser achieves an overall mean per-joint position error (MPJPE) of 6.425 cm, with 5.678 cm at the 45 degree aspect angle. The learned uncertainties exhibit strong alignment with actual pose errors and can be calibrated to produce reliable prediction intervals, with our best configuration achieving an expected calibration error of 0.021. As an additional demonstration, sampling from these latent distributions enables effective data augmentation for downstream activity classification, resulting in an F1 score of 0.870. To our knowledge, this is the first end-to-end radar tensor-based HPE system to explicitly model and quantify per-joint uncertainty from raw radar tensor data, establishing a foundation for explainable and reliable human motion analysis in radar applications.