Simulating quasar microlensing light curves: High magnification events

Abstract: Quasar microlensing can be used to constrain important astrophysical properties, such as the accretion disk size and the amount of stars in the lensing galaxy. The associated brightness variations over time, in particular high magnification events (HMEs) and caustic crossings, can yield precise constraints due to their strong dependence on the relative projected velocities of the components and accretion disk size. The next generation of large sky area surveys, such as The Vera Rubin Observatory (LSST) and Euclid, are expected to find and follow-up thousands of lensed quasars from which such events could be identified and observed. In this work we present a characterization and estimation of all HMEs that could potentially be observed, focusing on systems that could be identified by ground based telescopes. From systems whose minimum image separation is at least 1 arcsec, and their second dimmest image is at least 21.5 magnitudes in the i-band ($\sim560$ in the southern or northern sky), we estimate $\sim60$ HMEs with amplitudes $>0.3$ [mag] in the r-band per year. We find that on average, saddle images are approximately four times more likely to host events than minima, and $\sim10\%$ ($\sim50\%$) of events are caustic crossings for saddles (minima). We also find that HMEs in saddle images can have amplitudes $\sim1-2$ [mag] larger than minima.