Bayesian Neural Network Surrogates for Bayesian Optimization of Carbon Capture and Storage Operations

Abstract: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) stands as a pivotal technology for fostering a sustainable future. The process, which involves injecting supercritical CO$_2$ into underground formations, a method already widely used for Enhanced Oil Recovery, serves a dual purpose: it not only curbs CO$_2$ emissions and addresses climate change but also extends the operational lifespan and sustainability of oil fields and platforms, easing the shift toward greener practices. This paper delivers a thorough comparative evaluation of strategies for optimizing decision variables in CCS project development, employing a derivative-free technique known as Bayesian Optimization. In addition to Gaussian Processes, which usually serve as the gold standard in BO, various novel stochastic models were examined and compared within a BO framework. This research investigates the effectiveness of utilizing more exotic stochastic models than GPs for BO in environments where GPs have been shown to underperform, such as in cases with a large number of decision variables or multiple objective functions that are not similarly scaled. By incorporating Net Present Value (NPV) as a key objective function, the proposed framework demonstrates its potential to improve economic viability while ensuring the sustainable deployment of CCS technologies. Ultimately, this study represents the first application in the reservoir engineering industry of the growing body of BO research, specifically in the search for more appropriate stochastic models, highlighting its potential as a preferred method for enhancing sustainability in the energy sector.