The imaginary case of the nonabelian Cohen--Lenstra heuristics

Abstract: For a finite group $\Gamma$, we study the distribution of the Galois group $G_{\emptyset}^{#}(K)$ of the maximal unramified extension of $K$ that is split completely at $\infty$ and has degree prime to $|\Gamma|$ and $\textit{Char}(K)$, as $K$ varies over imaginary $\Gamma$-extensions of $\mathbb{Q}$ or $\mathbb{F}q(t)$. In the function field case, we compute the moments of the distribution of $G{\emptyset}^{#}(K)$ by counting points on Hurwitz stacks. In order to understand the probability of the distribution, we prove that $G_{\emptyset}^{#}(K)$ admits presentations of a specific form, then use this presentation to build random groups to simulate the behavior of $G_{\emptyset}^{#}(K)$, and make the conjecture to predict the distribution using the probability measures of these random groups. Our results provide the imaginary analog of the work of Wood, Zureick-Brown, and the first author on the nonabelian Cohen--Lenstra heuristics.