Measuring Sample Quality with Copula Discrepancies (2507.21434v1)

Abstract: The scalable Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms that underpin modern Bayesian machine learning, such as Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (SGLD), sacrifice asymptotic exactness for computational speed, creating a critical diagnostic gap: traditional sample quality measures fail catastrophically when applied to biased samplers. While powerful Stein-based diagnostics can detect distributional mismatches, they provide no direct assessment of dependence structure, often the primary inferential target in multivariate problems. We introduce the Copula Discrepancy (CD), a principled and computationally efficient diagnostic that leverages Sklar's theorem to isolate and quantify the fidelity of a sample's dependence structure independent of its marginals. Our theoretical framework provides the first structure-aware diagnostic specifically designed for the era of approximate inference. Empirically, we demonstrate that a moment-based CD dramatically outperforms standard diagnostics like effective sample size for hyperparameter selection in biased MCMC, correctly identifying optimal configurations where traditional methods fail. Furthermore, our robust MLE-based variant can detect subtle but critical mismatches in tail dependence that remain invisible to rank correlation-based approaches, distinguishing between samples with identical Kendall's tau but fundamentally different extreme-event behavior. With computational overhead orders of magnitude lower than existing Stein discrepancies, the CD provides both immediate practical value for MCMC practitioners and a theoretical foundation for the next generation of structure-aware sample quality assessment.