Learning Explainable Stock Predictions with Tweets Using Mixture of Experts

Abstract: Stock price movements are influenced by many factors, and alongside historical price data, tex-tual information is a key source. Public news and social media offer valuable insights into market sentiment and emerging events. These sources are fast-paced, diverse, and significantly impact future stock trends. Recently, LLMs have enhanced financial analysis, but prompt-based methods still have limitations, such as input length restrictions and difficulties in predicting sequences of varying lengths. Additionally, most models rely on dense computational layers, which are resource-intensive. To address these challenges, we propose the FTS- Text-MoE model, which combines numerical data with key summaries from news and tweets using point embeddings, boosting prediction accuracy through the integration of factual textual data. The model uses a Mixture of Experts (MoE) Transformer decoder to process both data types. By activating only a subset of model parameters, it reduces computational costs. Furthermore, the model features multi-resolution prediction heads, enabling flexible forecasting of financial time series at different scales. Experimental results show that FTS-Text-MoE outperforms baseline methods in terms of investment returns and Sharpe ratio, demonstrating its superior accuracy and ability to predict future market trends.