The Sustainability of the Leo Orbit Capacity via Risk-Driven Active Debris Removal

Abstract: The growing number of space debris in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) jeopardizes long-term orbital sustainability, requiring efficient risk assessment for active debris removal (ADR) missions. This study presents the development and validation of Filtered Modified MITRI (FMM), an enhanced risk index designed to improve the prioritization of high-criticality debris. Leveraging the MOCAT-MC simulation framework, we conducted a comprehensive performance evaluation and sensitivity analysis to probe the robustness of the FMM formulation. The results demonstrate that while the FMM provides superior identification of high-risk targets for annual removal campaigns, a nuanced performance trade-off exists between risk models depending on the operational removal cadence. The analysis also confirms that physically grounded mass terms are indispensable for practical risk assessment. By providing a validated open source tool and critical insights into the dynamics of risk, this research enhances our ability to select optimal ADR targets and ensure the long-term viability of LEO operations.