Researcher Population Pyramids for Tracking Global Demographic and Gender Trajectories

Abstract: The sustainability of the global academic ecosystem relies on researcher demographics and gender balance, yet assessing these dynamics in a timely manner for policy is challenging. Here, we propose a researcher population pyramids framework for tracking global demographic and gender trajectories using publication data. This framework provides a timely snapshot of historical and present demographics and gender balance, revealing three contrasting research systems: Emerging systems (e.g., Arab countries) exhibit high researcher inflows with widening gender gaps in cumulative productivity; Mature systems (e.g., the United States) show modest inflows with narrowing gender gaps; and Rigid systems (e.g., Japan) lag in both. Furthermore, by simulating future scenarios, the framework makes potential trajectories visible. If 2023 demographic patterns persist, Arab countries' systems could resemble mature or even rigid ones by 2050. Our framework provides a robust diagnostic tool for policymakers worldwide to foster sustainable talent pipelines and gender equality in academia.