Assessing the Reliability of Large Language Models for Deductive Qualitative Coding: A Comparative Study of ChatGPT Interventions

Abstract: In this study, we investigate the use of LLMs, specifically ChatGPT, for structured deductive qualitative coding. While most current research emphasizes inductive coding applications, we address the underexplored potential of LLMs to perform deductive classification tasks aligned with established human-coded schemes. Using the Comparative Agendas Project (CAP) Master Codebook, we classified U.S. Supreme Court case summaries into 21 major policy domains. We tested four intervention methods: zero-shot, few-shot, definition-based, and a novel Step-by-Step Task Decomposition strategy, across repeated samples. Performance was evaluated using standard classification metrics (accuracy, F1-score, Cohen's kappa, Krippendorff's alpha), and construct validity was assessed using chi-squared tests and Cramer's V. Chi-squared and effect size analyses confirmed that intervention strategies significantly influenced classification behavior, with Cramer's V values ranging from 0.359 to 0.613, indicating moderate to strong shifts in classification patterns. The Step-by-Step Task Decomposition strategy achieved the strongest reliability (accuracy = 0.775, kappa = 0.744, alpha = 0.746), achieving thresholds for substantial agreement. Despite the semantic ambiguity within case summaries, ChatGPT displayed stable agreement across samples, including high F1 scores in low-support subclasses. These findings demonstrate that with targeted, custom-tailored interventions, LLMs can achieve reliability levels suitable for integration into rigorous qualitative coding workflows.