The Effects of Flipped Classrooms in Higher Education: A Causal Machine Learning Analysis

Abstract: This study uses double/debiased machine learning to evaluate the impact of transitioning from lecture-based blended teaching to a flipped classroom concept in a cohort comparison of a large compulsory introductory statistics course at a German tuition-free university. Our findings indicate positive changes in students' self-conception and a reduction in procrastination behaviors. However, we also observe a decline in the enjoyment of classroom sessions. Contrary to theoretical expectations, we do not find significant positive effects on exam scores, passing rates, or knowledge retention. Unlike most studies, however, we can leverage detailed usage data from the flipped cohort, including the timeliness and completeness of pre-class video watching, as well as quiz participation patterns, to check how well students implemented each part of the curriculum. Our findings suggest that, on average, students in the flipped cohort implemented the instructional approach insufficiently, explaining the mechanism of our null results in exam performance and knowledge retention. This highlights the need for additional strategies to ensure that students actually benefit from a flipped curriculum.