Estimating Technical Loss without Power Flows: A Practical, Data-Driven Approach for Loss Estimation in Distribution Grids

Abstract: Electric grids in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) across the world face an acute challenge. To support global decarbonisation efforts and raise millions from energy poverty, these grids must shoulder substantial load growth while integrating distributed renewable generation. However, decades of rapid and poorly funded infrastructure expansions have led to national grids in many LMICs that are strained and weak, composed of aging, faulty, and undersized infrastructure. A cause and symptom of this weakness is excessive technical loss within the grid infrastructure during energy delivery, particularly at the distribution level; network losses are regularly estimated to be well over 20 percent, compared to a baseline of 5 percent in higher-income nations. Addressing technical loss through targeted interventions is essential for bolstering grids' physical and economic strength. Unfortunately, current approaches for estimating and localizing technical loss require expensive, extensive power flow sensing, which is essentially absent in LMIC distribution systems. We present a novel approach to technical loss estimation without power flows, which leverages more readily available voltage magnitude measurements at sparse locations in the grid. This estimator puts loss estimation and localization within reach for LMIC grids globally, and provides a critical tool for the effective design, implementation, and evaluation of loss-reduction interventions.