A Semi-Parametric Torus-to-Torus Regression Model with Geometric Loss: Application to Cyclone Data (2506.17014v1)

Abstract: This study demonstrates a novel application of torus-to-torus regression in cyclone data analysis, unleashing its potential for wider utilization in directional data modeling. This research, to our knowledge, establishes a mathematical framework for modeling the regression between bivariate angular predictors and bivariate angular responses for the first time in the literature. The proposed model makes use of generalized M\"{o}bius transformation and differential geometry for model building. A new loss function, derived from the intrinsic geometry of the torus, is introduced to facilitate effective semi-parametric estimation without requiring any specific distributional assumptions on the angular error. The prediction error is measured as an angular loss on the surface of the torus, and also the angular deflection along normal directions on the unit sphere transported from the torus. Additionally, a new visualization technique for circular data is introduced. The practical relevance of the model is illustrated through its application to wind and wave direction data from two major cyclonic events, Amphan and Biparjoy, that impacted the eastern and western coastlines of India, respectively.