Hubble's Multi-Year Search for Exospheres in the TRAPPIST-1 System Reveals Frequent Microflares (2506.12140v1)

Abstract: Ly-$\alpha$ observations provide a powerful probe of stellar activity and atmospheric escape in exoplanetary systems. We present here an analysis of 104 HST/STIS orbits monitoring the TRAPPIST-1 system between 2017 and 2022, covering 3--5 transits for each of its seven planets. We rule out transit depths $\gtrsim20\%$, which translates into an upper limit on the escape rate of $1064~EO_H$/Gyr for planet b ($1~EO_H$ is the Earth-ocean-equivalent hydrogen content), in agreement with recent claims that planet b should be airless. These upper limits are $\sim$3 times larger than expected from the photon noise due to a large baseline scatter, which we ultimately link to TRAPPIST-1's intrinsic Ly-$\alpha$ variability from frequent ``microflares.'' While JWST observations of TRAPPIST-1 in the near infrared have shown that $\sim10^{30}$-erg flares occur every $\sim$6 hours, we report here $\sim10^{29}$-erg flares on sub-hour timescales in the HST/STIS and also Very Large Telescope (VLT) $g^{'}$ observations. The FUV and optical amplitudes ($\sim$400$\%$ vs $\sim$3$\%$, respectively) for flares with similar waiting-times indicate flare temperatures of 11000$^{+4200}_{-3100}$~K over 0.011$^{+0.03}_{-0.01}$\% of the stellar disk. Finally, our multi-year baseline reveals a variability with $P = 3.27 \pm 0.04$ days, providing further validation of the previously reported 3.295-day rotation period for TRAPPIST-1. These results highlight the importance of accounting for stellar microvariability when searching for exospheres around active M dwarfs.