Towards more efficient quantitative safety validation of residual risk for assisted and automated driving

Abstract: The safety validation of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and Automated Driving Systems (ADS) increasingly demands efficient and reliable methods to quantify residual risk while adhering to international standards such as ISO 21448. Traditionally, Field Operational Testing (FOT) has been pivotal for macroscopic safety validation of automotive driving functions up to SAE automation level 2. However, state-of-the-art derivations for empirical safety demonstrations using FOT often result in impractical testing efforts, particularly at higher automation levels. Even at lower automation levels, this limitation - coupled with the substantial costs associated with FOT - motivates the exploration of approaches to enhance the efficiency of FOT-based macroscopic safety validation. Therefore, this publication systematically identifies and evaluates state-of-the-art Reduction Approaches (RAs) for FOT, including novel methods reported in the literature. Based on an analysis of ISO 21448, two models are derived: a generic model capturing the argumentation components of the standard, and a base model, exemplarily applied to Automatic Emergency Braking (AEB) systems, establishing a baseline for the real-world driving requirement for a Quantitative Safety Validation of Residual Risk (QSVRR). Subsequently, the RAs are assessed using four criteria: quantifiability, threats to validity, missing links, and black box compatibility, highlighting potential benefits, inherent limitations, and identifying key areas for further research. Our evaluation reveals that, while several approaches offer potential, none are free from missing links or other substantial shortcomings. Moreover, no identified alternative can fully replace FOT, reflecting its crucial role in the safety validation of ADAS and ADS.