Integrating Spatiotemporal Features in LSTM for Spatially Informed COVID-19 Hospitalization Forecasting

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic's severe impact highlighted the need for accurate, timely hospitalization forecasting to support effective healthcare planning. However, most forecasting models struggled, especially during variant surges, when they were needed most. This study introduces a novel Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) framework for forecasting daily state-level incident hospitalizations in the United States. We present a spatiotemporal feature, Social Proximity to Hospitalizations (SPH), derived from Facebook's Social Connectedness Index to improve forecasts. SPH serves as a proxy for interstate population interaction, capturing transmission dynamics across space and time. Our parallel LSTM architecture captures both short- and long-term temporal dependencies, and our multi-horizon ensembling strategy balances consistency and forecasting error. Evaluation against COVID-19 Forecast Hub ensemble models during the Delta and Omicron surges reveals superiority of our model. On average, our model surpasses the ensemble by 27, 42, 54, and 69 hospitalizations per state on the $7^{th}$, $14^{th}$, $21^{st}$, and $28^{th}$ forecast days, respectively, during the Omicron surge. Data-ablation experiments confirm SPH's predictive power, highlighting its effectiveness in enhancing forecasting models. This research not only advances hospitalization forecasting but also underscores the significance of spatiotemporal features, such as SPH, in refining predictive performance in modeling the complex dynamics of infectious disease spread.