Variance-Optimal Arm Selection: Regret Minimization and Best Arm Identification

Abstract: This paper focuses on selecting the arm with the highest variance from a set of $K$ independent arms. Specifically, we focus on two settings: (i) regret setting, that penalizes the number of pulls of suboptimal arms in terms of variance, and (ii) fixed-budget BAI setting, that evaluates the ability of an algorithm to determine the arm with the highest variance after a fixed number of pulls. We develop a novel online algorithm called \texttt{UCB-VV} for the regret setting and show that its upper bound on regret for bounded rewards evolves as $\mathcal{O}\left(\log{n}\right)$ where $n$ is the horizon. By deriving the lower bound on the regret, we show that \texttt{UCB-VV} is order optimal. For the fixed budget BAI setting, we propose the \texttt{SHVV} algorithm. We show that the upper bound of the error probability of \texttt{SHVV} evolves as $\exp\left(-\frac{n}{\log(K) H}\right)$, where $H$ represents the complexity of the problem, and this rate matches the corresponding lower bound. We extend the framework from bounded distributions to sub-Gaussian distributions using a novel concentration inequality on the sample variance. Leveraging the same, we derive a concentration inequality for the empirical Sharpe ratio (SR) for sub-Gaussian distributions, which was previously unknown in the literature. Empirical simulations show that \texttt{UCB-VV} consistently outperforms \texttt{$\epsilon$-greedy} across different sub-optimality gaps, though it is surpassed by \texttt{VTS}, which exhibits the lowest regret, albeit lacking in theoretical guarantees. We also illustrate the superior performance of \texttt{SHVV}, for a fixed budget setting under 6 different setups against uniform sampling. Finally, we conduct a case study to empirically evaluate the performance of the \texttt{UCB-VV} and \texttt{SHVV} in call option trading on $100$ stocks generated using geometric Brownian motion (GBM).