How spatial patterns can lead to less resilient ecosystems

Abstract: Several theoretical models predict that spatial patterning increases ecosystem resilience. However, these predictions rely on strong simplifying assumptions, such as isotropic and infinite ecosystems, and we lack empirical evidence directly linking spatial patterning to enhanced resilience. We introduce a unifying framework, encompassing existing models for vegetation pattern formation in water-stressed ecosystems, that relaxes these assumptions. This framework incorporates finite vegetated areas surrounded by desert and anisotropic environmental conditions that induce non-reciprocal plant interactions. Under these more realistic conditions, we identify a novel desertification mechanism, known as convective instability in physics but largely overlooked in ecology. These instabilities form when non-reciprocal interactions destabilize the vegetation-desert interface and can trigger desertification fronts even under stress levels where isotropic models predict stability. Importantly, ecosystems with periodic vegetation patterns are more vulnerable to convective instabilities than those with homogeneous vegetation, suggesting that spatial patterning may reduce, rather than enhance, resilience. These findings challenge the view of self-organized patterns as indicators of resilience and provide a new framework to investigate how spatial dynamics determine the stability and resilience of ecological systems across scales.