Optimal Low Emission Zones scheduling as an example of transport policy backcasting

Abstract: This study presents a backcasting approach that considers the passenger car fleet dynamics to determine optimal policy roadmaps in transport systems. As opposed to the scenario-based approach, backcasting sets emission reduction targets first, then identifies policies that meet the constraint. The policy is the implementation of Low Emission Zones (LEZs), in the Ile-de-France region as a case study. The aim is to minimize the number of scrapped vehicles due to LEZs under CO2 emission targets and to deduce an interdiction schedule of polluting vehicles by 2050. To explore potential solutions, we use a genetic algorithm that provides a first insight into optimal policy pathways.