Fluctuating growth rates link turnover and unevenness in species-rich communities (2505.01376v1)

Abstract: The maintenance of diversity, the `commonness of rarity', and compositional turnover are ubiquitous features of species-rich communities. Through a stylized model, we consider how these features reflect the interplay between environmental stochasticity, intra- and interspecific competition, and dispersal. We show that, even when species have the same time-average fitness, fitness fluctuations tend to drive the community towards ever-growing unevenness and species extinctions, but self-limitation and/or dispersal allow high-diversity states to be sustained. We then analyze the species-abundance distribution and the abundance distribution of individual species over time in such high-diversity states. Their shapes vary predictably along two axes -- Exclusion-Stabilization and Exclusion-Buffering -- that describe the relative strength of the underlying ecological processes. Predicted shapes cover different empirically observed cases, notably power-law and unimodal distributions. An effective focal-species model allows us to relate static abundance distributions with turnover dynamics, also when species have different mean fitness. The model suggests how community statistics and time series of individual species can inform on the relative importance of the ecological processes that structure diversity.