STFM: A Spatio-Temporal Information Fusion Model Based on Phase Space Reconstruction for Sea Surface Temperature Prediction

Abstract: The sea surface temperature (SST), a key environmental parameter, is crucial to optimizing production planning, making its accurate prediction a vital research topic. However, the inherent nonlinearity of the marine dynamic system presents significant challenges. Current forecasting methods mainly include physics-based numerical simulations and data-driven machine learning approaches. The former, while describing SST evolution through differential equations, suffers from high computational complexity and limited applicability, whereas the latter, despite its computational benefits, requires large datasets and faces interpretability challenges. This study presents a prediction framework based solely on data-driven techniques. Using phase space reconstruction, we construct initial-delay attractor pairs with a mathematical homeomorphism and design a Spatio-Temporal Fusion Mapping (STFM) to uncover their intrinsic connections. Unlike conventional models, our method captures SST dynamics efficiently through phase space reconstruction and achieves high prediction accuracy with minimal training data in comparative tests