Identifying Evidence Subgraphs for Financial Risk Detection via Graph Counterfactual and Factual Reasoning

Abstract: Company financial risks pose a significant threat to personal wealth and national economic stability, stimulating increasing attention towards the development of efficient andtimely methods for monitoring them. Current approaches tend to use graph neural networks (GNNs) to model the momentum spillover effect of risks. However, due to the black-box nature of GNNs, these methods leave much to be improved for precise and reliable explanations towards company risks. In this paper, we propose CF3, a novel Counterfactual and Factual learning method for company Financial risk detection, which generates evidence subgraphs on company knowledge graphs to reliably detect and explain company financial risks. Specifically, we first propose a meta-path attribution process based on Granger causality, selecting the meta-paths most relevant to the target node labels to construct an attribution subgraph. Subsequently, we propose anedge-type-aware graph generator to identify important edges, and we also devise a layer-based feature masker to recognize crucial node features. Finally, we utilize counterfactual-factual reasoning and a loss function based on attribution subgraphs to jointly guide the learning of the graph generator and feature masker. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our method compared to state-of-the-art approaches in the field of financial risk detection.