Upper tail bounds for irregular graphs

Abstract: We consider the upper tail large deviations of subgraph counts for irregular graphs $\mathrm{H}$ in $\mathbb{G}(n,p)$, the sparse Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi graph on $n$ vertices with edge connectivity probability $p \in (0,1)$. For $n^{-1/\Delta} \ll p \ll 1$, where $\Delta$ is the maximum degree of $\mathrm{H}$, we derive the upper tail large deviations for any irregular graph $\mathrm{H}$. On the other hand, we show that for $p$ such that $$1 \ll n^{{v_{\mathrm{H}}}} p^{{e_{\mathrm{H}}}} \ll (\log n)<sup>{\alpha<sup>{<em>}_{\mathrm{H}}/\left(\alpha^{</em>}_{\mathrm{H}}-1\right)}$$, where $v_{\mathrm{H}}$ and $e_{\mathrm{H}}$ denote the number of vertices and edges of $\mathrm{H}$, and $\alpha<sup>*_{\mathrm{H}}$ denotes the fractional independence number, the upper tail large deviations of the number of unlabelled copies of $\mathrm{H}$ in $\mathbb{G}(n,p)$ is given by that of a sequence of Poisson random variables with diverging mean, for any strictly balanced graph $\mathrm{H}$. Restricting to the $r$-armed star graph we further prove a localized behavior in the intermediate range of $p$ (left open by the above two results) and show that the mean-field approximation is asymptotically tight for the logarithm of the upper tail probability. This work further identifies the typical structures of $\mathbb{G}(n,p)$ conditioned on upper tail rare events in the localized regime.