Interpreting AI for Fusion: an application to Plasma Profile Analysis for Tearing Mode Stability

Abstract: AI models have demonstrated strong predictive capabilities for various tokamak instabilities--including tearing modes (TM), ELMs, and disruptive events--but their opaque nature raises concerns about safety and trustworthiness when applied to fusion power plants. Here, we present a physics-based interpretation framework using a TM prediction model as a first demonstration that is validated through a dedicated DIII-D TM avoidance experiment. By applying Shapley analysis, we identify how profiles such as rotation, temperature, and density contribute to the model's prediction of TM stability. Our analysis shows that in our experimental scenario, peaked rotation profiles are lightly stabilizing, but core electron temperature and density profile shape play the primary role in TM stability. This work offers a generalizable ML-based event prediction methodology, from training to physics-driven interpretability, bridging the gap between physics understanding and opaque ML models.