Resident Turnover and Community Satisfaction in Active Lifestyle Communities

Abstract: An analysis of Tellico Village, a non-age-restricted active lifestyle community, reveals complex patterns in resident tenure and satisfaction. Longitudinal surveys (2018-2024) and property records show consistently high satisfaction levels (93%), yet a decline in median tenure from 13 years pre-COVID to 11 years post-COVID (p < 0.001), reflecting a broader nationwide trend in homeownership duration. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis identifies departure risk peaks at years 3, 5, 7, 11, 16, 22, and 26, corresponding to life transitions and market cycles. Satisfaction follows a U-shaped trajectory, lowest between years 6-9 (3-12). Key predictors include financial attitudes, recreational engagement, and openness to growth. While aggregate willingness to pay higher POA fees strongly correlates with satisfaction, explaining 94% of the variance, this relationship weakens at the neighborhood (44%) and household (5%) levels. Machine learning models - including Support Vector Machines, Random Forests, and XGBoost - and hedonic price analysis provided limited predictive power, suggesting the influence of unmeasured variables. The study advances understanding of housing tenure dynamics in lifestyle communities while highlighting the need for more sophisticated longitudinal tracking and instrumental variable approaches.